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FILE - A local woman reacts next to her destroyed home after shelling in pro-Russian rebels controlled Staromykhaylivka village near of Donetsk, Ukraine. The situation in the Donbas will not be aggravated by the initiative of Moscow because of the lack of readiness of the Russian military to escalate the situation, he said. He says no field camps have been established by Russian forces along the border with the Donbas, which he would expect to see if a campaign is being planned. Col. Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, a security spokesman for Ukraine’s presidential administration, agrees that it is difficult to predict what Moscow might be planning. When there are clashes, we respond, he says. But the OSCE has blamed both sides for cease-fire violations. Motuzyanyk suspects Russia is testing and probing, trying to fathom what Western political reaction would be in the event of an offensive and also what Ukraines military response would be. He says Ukrainian forces in the Donbas are reporting new portable electronic jamming systems being used by Russian-backed forces in the east and they have observed an influx of man-portable, short-range guided anti-tank missiles known as Bumbars and nicknamed Bumblebees. If a major offensive isnt in the offing, what is Moscow planning? Some Kyiv officials think the aim might instead be to pressure the West to lift some of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia click reference after the annexation of the Crimea. A restoration of normal trade relations with the West would ease the perilous state of Russias economy, which shrank last year by four percent thanks in part to the plunge in the price of oil, and is on course, according to the World Bank, to diminish by at least another two percent this year.

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